Law of averages "aka" The limited law of likely events

Most everyone says each and every spin of a roulette wheel is random and independent and has no connection to past or future spins. Because it is a 'replacement' game the odds of the number hitting again remain the same after each spin, so you cannot give any weight to the past or future numbers.

The usual argument is that the "wheel has no memory". The only thing these so called Professional Gamblers and Mathematicians can point to is the written argument that simply says that each roulette spin is random and an independent event. Have you seen proof of that? To some it is just logical but to a few they have since stumbled on the truth and are afraid to admit it because they have too much to lose. They are afraid to admit the truth because their credibility goes out the window. However, that approach is very short sighted, because when the truth comes out they will have a hard time explaining to their public why it took them so long to see it. In my humble opinion, correct as it may be, "Roulette is random but dependant. Dependant on the law of averages." You heard it hear first. Our System has no bearing on the ball and the ball has no bearing on the system. The only thing that affects Roulette is the "Law of Averages". (LOA) I know most don't agree. OK nobody agrees. Y'all are simply wrong.

Most mathematicians and experienced gamblers have an incorrect mindset. Mathematicians keep telling us, "Roulette Wheels have no memory, dice have no memory, and tossed coins have no memory because they are inanimate objects." They are simple wrong including Webster's Dictionary, Encyclopaedias and even Einstein.

In the 1700's there was a Reverend by the name of Thomas Bayes (1702–1761). He developed many theories' many of which are in use today. In fact Microsoft uses them in our computers to make intelligent decisions because some are based on the odds of one answer being right over others. Believe it or not here we are in the 21st century and they are just starting to recognize all the aspects of his most important theorem. "Bayes' theorem" is a result in probability theory, which relates the conditional and marginal probability distributions of random variables. In some interpretations of probability, Bayes' theorem tells how to update or revise beliefs in light of new evidence. In other words watch what comes out and make decisions based on this new information on what is due.

"The greatest ignorance is to reject something you know nothing about." Horace Greeley

You must bet big groups and watch the board and get a feel for what has come out and what has not come out. This is key to better results. It's not hard and it actually will come naturally over time and with experience. You will actually become a better player as this develops. I am not talking about individual numbers. With this technique you will take advantage of what groups are overdue that wouldn't be recognized without this experience. More importantly no one takes advantage of it if they don't believe in the Law of Averages. That is why most people lose.

Roulette is tough to beat and you need to take advantage of anything that can give you insight. We are not talking about guessing what number is coming out. Just read on and we will clear all this up. Please try and keep an open mind. I know no one agrees with me but they are wrong and we can and will prove it in this chapter and with out systems.

Since any good system is based on mathematics and since we play with many groupings of numberss, we can predict with some measure of success the wins and losses. The fact that Roulette is totally random is in and of itself what allows for predictability.

Roulette is random

This may be technically true but it is a big jump from here to assuming each event is independence and that a dependant system can't be found. The roulette wheel is designed to be mechanically "perfect", the purpose of which is to generate random numbers evenly, fairly, and without bias. If in fact, all numbers have the same chance of coming out of this perfection then each number is treated equally and therefore will / must be delivered evenly over the long term.

"The Law of Averages will & can only produce truly random results in an unbiased atmosphere."

Stop and really think about this next sentence.... "If each spin is independent then how do things even out over time?" There either is a Law of Averages or there is no such thing. A numbers ability to appear on average 1 in 37 / 38 spins requires that its appearance either speed up or slow down over time as all other numbers do thru each numbers natural statistical pressure which influences the average distribution of all numbers. There is dependence. The dependence is on an unbiased wheel, and each number. The fact that we know that numbers appear on average 1 in 37/38 spins is something to build a system on. It's also called the "odds".
The fact that the words "the odds of" are used in roulette in and of it self prove there is a pressure that things even out. Yes it could be a long time but with a small group of numbers like 37 or 38 it won't take that long....not for a number to appear but much longer for a very large group on numbers to appear. All numbers will even out over time in an unbiased atmosphere with an unbiased wheel. If the wheel was biased things would not even out. On the other hand we do not think what it's called is as important as what it produces. What is more important is that unbiased wheels, through the "Law of Averages", its numbers are influenced to even out over time. This only proves that all numbers are dependent on each other or at the very least the Law of Averages.

Playing to the odds

There are a very few people who agree that the wheel has any kind dependence. However, we have carried it a step further and this new school of thought is that you can assign weight to past outcomes to predict to some degree of accuracy the outcome of future Spins.

Something very similar to card counting without the cards. We are not talking about being telepathic. We are talking about playing to the odds. The same as card counting. Giving 6 decks of cards a good mix is no difference than a random wheel. An important fact and despite what so called experts say, you actually will find that in roulette, previous numbers (both the ones that have hit and especially the ones that have not) have an important bearing on what is going to happen on future spins. I am not talking about being Psychic but watching for what is due or past due.

The self professed professionals, "ad nausea", carry this independence a step further and continue to state as a fact that a winning system is not a winning system if it cannot hold up to and profit by thousands of spins. (Computer or otherwise). Systems do not have to withstand a million spins and rake in 2 million dollars to be a winning system. If you look at Systems that way you will never ever win. However, change your expectations of their outcome and your opinion of systems will change. There is nothing like walking up to a table, playing for 6 to 15 spins and walk away with 15 or 20 chips to change ones attitude about systems. 20. \$1chips = \$20, 20 \$5 chips = \$100, and 20 \$25 chips = \$500. What is that wood? I consider that a win. Would you like to leave with \$500? However, no strategy survives completely its contact with a wheel. There are anomaly's that no system can withstand.

Every table is totally independent and every table acts any way it wants. Therefore no mechanically set strategy we know of will work all the time. What they totally neglect and ignore to take into account is our own ability to make conscious decisions during play that can enhance our ability to win. We simply watch the table.

Yes I admit 3, 4 or 5 house numbers could come out in a row but if you are covering 30 numbers out of 37 it would be an extremely rare event that 5 out of 7 house numbers in a row would come out before 1 of your 30 numbers come out. Extremely rare. However, even if it happens it doesn't prove that every spin is independent. Random YES, independent NO.

Example of the dozens

While many will not agree, let's look at an example of the dozens. Each dozen has the probability of coming out once in 3.167 spins. There we go probability. That being said is proof alone of dependence. However, we all know it doesn't always appear perfectly on time. However, if I (speaking for myself) were on a table with a charting board and found that the 3rd dozen hasn't hit let's say in the last 15 to 20 spins, I would certainly consider covering the high numbers 25 to 36. Why? Because it is PAST DUE! No way past due. Have you ever heard of the term past due? Have you ever used the term past due? Past due means something is "weighted" (due) to come in. If it is due then there is a dependence on something. Call it what you will. It is exactly these kinds of intelligent decisions that we can bring to the table along with a good system that help carry us over the edge. So a system can win and not be mechanical.

Bring your skill, knowledge, and discipline

Those who have played any specific system for let's say thousands of spins will recall a point in time at which the system opened up to you. You at that point can see clearly see its shortcomings or value. That being the case and depending on the system you could "adapt". We can bring our skill, knowledge, and discipline to the table to modify and continually improve the system. We have and it works. Humans can think on their feet.
We also have to be able to figure a way to predict (I hate using that word) what will not come out, not every time but with enough success to keep us ahead of the casino. Most gamblers are trying to figure out what should come out. You have a better shot at figuring out what will not come out. Let's face it it's 36 or 37 chances it won't to 1 it will come out; it's a "No Brainer". Choose not to bet what will not come out, how could you lose? It is more simply another way of playing "To the Odds". Will you be successful all the time? Absolutely not, however all you need develop is skill enough to be successful once in awhile and only enough to keep you ahead of the Casino. And if you are playing a system that plays close to the casino's cut then you won't need much to stay ahead of them. See how simple? Only kidding.... it's still tough.

At this time, neither casinos nor most gamblers realize that there is a discernible, weighted, mathematical relationship between the numbers that have hit and the numbers that will hit in the future. It is called the "Law of Averages". They do not know how to rely upon the mechanical perfection of the device (wheel) or to be able to anticipate with some degree of success-balanced statistics. R.D. Ellison in his book, written many years after ours says it better than us, "... events with probabilities will move toward parity with the others.... There is an ongoing statistical pressure on every playable number to appear within a given time frame. As events accumulate you will see the Law of Averaging inclination to even things out." Boy I wish I said that. He is one of the very few who get it.

How to win at roulette

You start off with a good mechanical system that wins much of the time; It has to play very close to the casino cut. By doing so, you only have to bring a small amount of skill to the table. The closer to the casino the less we need to do to stay up to and ahead of the Casino. Here is where you muster your skill, knowledge, and discipline. Here is where you play to the Law of Averages, play to the Odds. Since you start out with a very good system that wins often and you add in playing to the Odds, you can very often tip the house Odds depending on the system maybe in our favour. Now add a little money management at just the right time and in just the right way and you can insure an even more profitable strategy and result.

Some systems like the Old Barbi and the New Barbi system have been designed to do most of this automatically.
Topping this off with the experience of truly knowing your system will allow you to fully understand your specific system and what we call "Spring Value", which is the ability for a particular system to win back losses. This swing between the average highs and average lows of a specific system is what we call its "Spring Value". Eventually you'll get a good feel for the entire system and its proper money management strategy. In other words how much you can push it. At some point the system will open up to you. We set win and loss walks based on this knowledge. Have no doubt, without this very specific knowledge there will never be consistent wins, only consistent losses. Most everyone gets ahead at a table but few have the knowledge of a system or the discipline to leave ahead. That comes from not knowing enough about the system you are playing. If a system has the average potential of hitting 10%, then that's where you should walk. If another system has an average potential of hitting 35% then that is where you should walk. Obviously walking on time is one of the best roulette tips to long-term consistent winning. Walking on time comes from experience and more importantly from discipline.

In addition, if you keep track of the outcomes, that information is helpful on your decisions in what numbers or groups of numbers to play next or more importantly not play next. When you skip betting locations you not only save money but your net profit is higher if you win. Human beings playing roulette can use his or her intelligence & memory to observe and chart a "connection" between past and future spins that can be used to create a system that is applicable on roulette wheels to predict the likely hood of the next outcome. Not the next number but possibly the next group. An extended famine of high numbers (just for example) provides a solid betting opportunity to cover those numbers after that long absence, provided the wheel is not biased. Knowledge of your systems average ability to win and lose, you won't recognize when it is time to walk. Without the discipline to walk at that time we are losers. See how simple? I know.... I have a saying "You don't know what you don't know". Nothing is truer than in the case of Roulette. Only when you find a system that can beat roulette, will you then agree it can be done. Sadly until you try our systems especially the New Barbi single street system many will quietly search and boldly disbelieve it could ever be beaten.

Until you understand it, it seems mind-boggling and once understood it seems so simple. I told you so. This is so true of Roulette. Yogi Berra (a great old time Yankee baseball player) has often said, "When you come to a fork in the road, take it". Until you travelled in all directions don't be so sure it can't be done. Just because you have not found the answer do not suggest there is none. Did Dr. Einstein always know the exact "Theory of Relativity" or did he come upon it after many trials / errors and forks in the road? The more you know about roulette the luckier you will be. Luck is directly related to knowledge.

If you are planning to wait for some magical system to come along that you just play mechanically and keep winning, well you are going to have a long, long wait. These are the systems that we hope someday to program into a computer and hit "Alt Spin" and the money/profits keep adding up. I wouldn't hold your breath if I were you. Systems do not work like that at least not yet. Right now we need to practice and participate to gain the edge.
We have said many time in the past that Roulette was designed with math to beat us, and yes we need math to beat Roulette. However, while math is a top priority to be considered when attempting to best Roulette it is not the only thing needed in order to win. Remember no system can remove the 5.26% house cut. However, who cares if the casino takes a cut as long as you are winning. I don't know what all the fuss is over the so-called casino edge. It's really not an edge it's a cut against winnings. As long as I take 94.737% of each bet the casino can have it's 5.263% or 2.7%.

You know about discipline, having a good system, money management and blah, blah, blah all those other things we all profess to be important but you also need two other things we rarely hear emphasized enough. You need the ability to concentrate at the tables and need the ability to predict with some reasonable accuracy when it is time to change betting locations when something else is due or perhaps not due. However, this prediction is not based on our Psychic abilities; it's actually based on The Law of Averages (LoA) "aka" the statistical propensity or much better known as the odds. We renamed the "LoA", "The Limited Law of Likely Events" "LLLE" pronounced "EL E" which provides that a statistical balance is struck, as long as there is no interference or bias. All deficits will be paid back sooner or later. When there is a large vacancy, then a trend or two will most likely appear to correct it.
This educated guessing is the art of success and the better you master it the more you win. Without this talent you will have to depend strictly on the mechanics of your system and you will have to hit and run at best. It's like expecting the expected, while being prepared for the unexpected that sometimes happens? Prediction with decent accuracy is a key to allowing you to stay at a table with a good system or two and continue to win, win, win, and win.

Because of our specific choices that come from experience and knowledge our brain will tell us the choices to make and this when added to all the Bla, Bla, Bla is what can keep us ahead of the casino. Yes, you can continue to win without having to hit and run. We are looking for our "Holy Grail", the key to the "Holy Grail" is hidden in one's ability to design a good system, concentrate and successfully predict with decent enough success what is due or not due and set up a system that is somewhat successful at this. There are few that truly understand the mathematics of probabilities and the law of diminishing probability. In essence, the longer something happens, the less likely it is to continue. This is what the Barbi systems are based on – the law of averages and its diminishing probabilities. The law of averages, averages numbers out in the very long run, but groups of numbers even out in the medium and short runs making it much easier to predict hits.

If we remove money off bets assuming they are not due and we are right, we save money. There is absolutely no difference in saving money and making money. In addition, we do not have to be right often. How many times can we actually kick our selves because of one wrong move that was the deciding factor in our losing a session?
Conversely one right move can also be the deciding factor for a winning session. Now go make your move.

Richard Grace.

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